By: Abacus Reveals
Suspense and unpredictability, it seems, have been reserved for the regular season. Will the scorned Russell Westbrook post triple double averages for the first time in over half a century? Can such a casual defender as James Harden truly be considered an MVP candidate? Has Commissioner Adam Silver’s honeymoon with the whole wide hoops world come to an end as he tries to appease media partners dissatisfied with the “bang” they’re getting for their “buck”?
And then there’s the league’s Southeast Division, which can make up its collective mind about only one thing – the Magic are genuinely lousy. Every other squad has posted the division’s best record for a significant chunk of the season. During the first six weeks, Charlotte (12-9) ruled the roost; for Quarter II it was Atlanta (14-5); and Weeks 13-18 were topped by Miami (17-3). Washington is likely the division’s most playoff-tested team – and they posted the Southeast’s best record (21-6) during Weeks 9-16 (i.e. the middle “third” of the season).
During the NBA’s 1,230-game regular-season march to Cavs-Dubs III, league-wide scoring has been showing a steady and significant increase. Let’s compare some data from the season’s first eight-week segment (Oct. 25 – Dec. 19) and its second (Dec. 20 – Feb. 13). All but six teams increased their per-game scoring in Session II; 22 surrendered more points. The average team performance saw a boost in: FG% (.451 - .462), 3FG% (.354 - .364), FT% (.765 - .780), Points-per-shot (1.219 – 1.253), Points-per-possession (1.073 – 1.101) and Points-per-game (104.2 – 107.0).
Even more eye-popping has been the league’s use of the Three-Ball. It has been nearly 20 years since there has been so great an alteration to the NBA’s usage of the three-point field goal attempt – a full three percent. Through 21 weeks and 70 games, the San Antonio Spurs have taken 1,632 “threes” among their 5,843 total FG attempts – a 3-Point-Attempt rate, or 3Par, of .279 (No. 25 in the league), slightly below the league average (.285) just last season.
Back in ’96-97, the NBA posted a league-wide 3Par of .212, only the second time NBA players had attempted one in five shots from Three Point Land. The following season, that rate would back off to .159 as the league abandoned its three-year experiment with a 22’ arc. It would be eight more years before the 3Par returned to the 20 percent level.
And here we go this season surpassing 30 percent and sure to post the second highest boost ever – the rate rose to .188 from .117 when the distance was shortened in 1994. (Average usage had hit 10 percent -- .104, to be precise – for the very first time during 1992-93 season.)
In terms of the accuracy of this steadily-increasing distance shooting, we’ve seen two decades of pretty phenomenal shooting. Predictably, marksmanship improved from 33 percent to 36 percent using the closer line. But it dropped only half as much (to .346) post-experiment … and the league as a whole has shot treys in the .350’s and .360’s in every season since Y2K. At the 21-week mark of this season, there are two teams whose 3Par is at the 40 percent level. The Houston Symphony Orchestra, under the direction of Conductor Harden, is performing the Morey-D’Antoni Overture to the tune of .464 – 2,864 three-point tries in 6,176 FG attempts. The Rockets stand No. 15 in accuracy at .362 and own the NBA’s third best record.
The other member of the “Forty Club”?
The injury-plagued defending champions, with 2,370 treys in their 5,932 shots (.400) and the league’s second best rate of accuracy (.388).
Speaking of wellness, the apoplexy that has befallen the teams of the Southeast would seem to have spread to North Texas. During Weeks 16-18, Coach Rick Carlisle’s Dallas Mavericks outscored the opposition by over two points per game, yet lost five of nine. The following three weeks, the Mavs were outscored by four a game, yet won six of ten.
And I wonder why I keep getting error messages on my Abacus??